Casino Bonus Calculator – Estimate Real Bonus Value

The simple formula

Every casino bonus has a real-money expected value (EV) that you can estimate with one line of math:

EV = Bonus − (Wagering Multiplier × Bonus × House Edge)

That’s it. The bonus value minus the expected loss while clearing the wagering. If EV is positive, the bonus is worth claiming on average. If EV is negative, you’ll lose money in the long run by claiming it.

Worked CAD examples

Example 1: Low-wagering match

$50 bonus, 5x wagering, 4% house edge. EV = 50 − (5 × 50 × 0.04) = 50 − 10 = +$40. Worth claiming.

Example 2: Standard welcome match

$200 bonus, 35x wagering, 4% house edge. EV = 200 − (35 × 200 × 0.04) = 200 − 280 = −$80. On average, you lose $80 by trying to clear this bonus. Skip or play it as entertainment.

Example 3: Big match, very high wagering

$1,600 across four deposits, 70x wagering, 4% house edge. EV = 1,600 − (70 × 1,600 × 0.04) = 1,600 − 4,480 = −$2,880. The headline number is enormous; the expected value is deeply negative.

Example 4: Cashback

10% real-cash cashback on a week with $600 net loss = +$60. No wagering, no catches. Almost always positive EV.

Factors that change the answer

• Wagering on bonus only vs deposit + bonus. The latter is roughly twice the work and roughly halves your EV.
• Game contribution. Slots usually contribute 100%; table games often only 10-20% (so you need 5-10x more turnover on tables to clear a slot bonus).
• Max bet during wagering. Most casinos cap bets at $5–$10 while you have an active bonus. Higher bets can void your winnings.
• Bonus expiry. 7-day expiry on a high-wagering bonus is essentially impossible to clear. Look for at least 30 days.
• Max cashout. Some bonuses cap winnings at, say, 5x the deposit. Even if you hit a big win, you only keep up to the cap.

Quick mental shortcuts

• If wagering × house edge ≥ 1, the bonus has roughly zero EV. Slot bonuses with 25x+ wagering are usually breakeven or worse.
• Cashback at 0x wagering is always positive EV.
• Wagering on bonus only is strictly better than wagering on deposit + bonus.
• For free-spin offers, multiply spins × bet size to get face value, then apply the same formula.

For deeper context, see our wagering requirements explained guide and our list of low-wagering casino bonuses Canada.

18+ only. Gambling should be entertainment, not income. Set deposit and loss limits before you play. For free, confidential help in Canada call ConnexOntario (1-866-531-2600) or visit ResponsibleGambling.org.